2026 ACA Marketplace by the Numbers: Enrollment, Subsidy Changes, and What to Expect

The ACA Marketplace (also called Healthcare.gov or "Obamacare") just came off its largest enrollment period ever — and it's heading into its most significant change since the law was passed in 2010. The enhanced premium subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act, which were originally a COVID-era expansion of ACA help, expired at the end of 2025. That's already reshaping what 2026 Marketplace plans cost for millions of Americans.

Here's the 2026 Marketplace in numbers, with every figure sourced from KFF, CMS, the Congressional Budget Office, or Healthcare.gov. Full source list at the bottom.

Enrollment: A Record-Breaking 2025, a Shifting 2026

The 2025 Open Enrollment Period saw a record 24.3 million ACA Marketplace signups — more than double the 11.4 million who enrolled in 2020. Enrollment has grown every year since 2021 when the American Rescue Plan first expanded subsidies. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 extended those enhanced subsidies through 2025, fueling continued growth.

Put another way: nearly all ACA Marketplace enrollees paid a lower premium than the "sticker price" because they qualified for subsidies. For many middle-income enrollees, those subsidies have been the difference between having coverage and going uninsured.

The Big Story: Enhanced Subsidies Expired December 31, 2025

This is the single biggest change for 2026 Marketplace plans. Here's what it means in practice:

The subsidy cliff is back

Before 2021, households earning more than 400% of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) received zero premium tax credit — even if the full premium cost exceeded 10% of their income. Under ARPA/IRA, that cliff was replaced with a smooth cap at 8.5% of income, regardless of how high the income was. For 2026, the cliff returns.

For a single 60-year-old earning $65,000 (roughly 418% of FPL in 2025), the difference can be thousands of dollars per year in premium subsidies lost.

Lower-income subsidies shrink too

Enhanced subsidies also made coverage cheaper for lower-income enrollees. Under the enhanced rules, someone at 150% of FPL paid $0 for a benchmark silver plan. Under the pre-ARPA formula that returned for 2026, that same person pays a percentage of income (though still heavily subsidized).

The Congressional Budget Office estimated in multiple analyses that letting the enhanced subsidies expire would reduce Marketplace enrollment by roughly 4–5 million people over several years, as premiums rise faster than some enrollees can absorb.

How Premiums Are Changing in 2026

The expiration has a compounding effect on what enrollees actually pay:

• Benchmark premium increases: Even before the subsidy change, the average benchmark silver plan premium rose across most states for 2026 (actual percentages vary widely by state — KFF publishes state-level increases at the state-by-state level each fall)
• Smaller tax credit formula: Subsidies are calculated against the pre-ARPA formula, so tax credits are smaller even if the benchmark premium were flat
• Subsidy-cliff households lose everything: Anyone over 400% FPL who previously received subsidies loses them entirely

KFF's pre-expiration modeling estimated that for many middle-income enrollees, monthly premiums could more than double compared to what they paid under the enhanced subsidies.

What the One Big Beautiful Bill Did and Did Not Do

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed in July 2025, was the major legislative vehicle where subsidy extension was debated. The final law did not extend the enhanced subsidies. It did include several ACA-adjacent provisions:

• Income verification tightening: Additional requirements for Marketplace enrollees to verify reported income, with potential subsidy adjustments if verification fails
• Auto-reenrollment changes: Limits on auto-reenrollment for subsidized plans without updated income information from the enrollee
• Special Enrollment Period (SEP) restrictions: Some tightening of eligibility for year-round Special Enrollment Periods that had been broadened during the COVID era
• Short-term plan expansion: Rules that ease access to short-term limited-duration insurance as an alternative to ACA plans

The net effect is that Marketplace enrollment will likely decline in 2026 as subsidies shrink and administrative requirements tighten, even as underlying Marketplace plan quality remains similar to prior years.

2026 ACA Key Numbers Cheat Sheet

Federal Poverty Level thresholds (2025 guidelines, used for 2026 subsidies)

Eligibility for premium tax credits is based on your household income as a percentage of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL). Because the ACA uses the prior year's FPL to calculate subsidies, your 2026 Marketplace subsidy eligibility is measured against the 2025 poverty guidelines published by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Here are the 2025 FPL thresholds for the 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C., at the income levels that matter most for ACA subsidies, Medicaid expansion, and cost-sharing reductions:

Need more detail? See our 2026 ACA & Subsidy Cheat Sheet — a full reference that adds expected premium contribution percentages, Marketplace out-of-pocket maximums by CSR tier, Medicaid and CHIP eligibility lines, the employer affordability threshold, and APTC repayment limits.

Key thresholds at a glance

• 138% FPL is the Medicaid eligibility line in states that expanded Medicaid under the ACA. Below this level, most adults qualify for Medicaid in expansion states rather than Marketplace subsidies.
• 150% FPL is the maximum for the richest cost-sharing reduction (94% actuarial value) on Silver plans, as well as the upper end of the $0-premium benchmark Silver plan under the pre-ARPA subsidy formula.
• 200% FPL is the cutoff for the 87% AV Silver cost-sharing reduction tier.
• 250% FPL is the upper limit for any Silver cost-sharing reduction (73% AV tier).
• 400% FPL is the subsidy cliff that returned in 2026. Under the enhanced IRA subsidies (2021–2025), income above 400% FPL still received a premium cap at 8.5% of income. Starting with Coverage Year 2026, income above 400% FPL is ineligible for premium tax credits entirely.

Open Enrollment dates

• Federal Marketplace (Healthcare.gov): November 1, 2025 – January 15, 2026 (for 2026 plan year)
• State-run marketplaces: Some states (California, New York, New Jersey, others) extend open enrollment into late January. Check your state exchange for exact dates

Special Enrollment Periods (SEPs)

Life events that trigger a 60-day SEP to enroll or change plans outside Open Enrollment:

• Loss of other health coverage (job loss, COBRA ending, aging off a parent's plan)
• Marriage, divorce, or legal separation
• Having a baby, adoption, or foster placement
• Moving to a new area with different plan options
• Citizenship or immigration status changes
• Significant income changes affecting subsidy eligibility

What to Do If You're Affected

For current Marketplace enrollees facing higher 2026 costs, practical options include:

• Shop the Marketplace again for 2026. Your 2025 plan may no longer be the best fit. Lower-tier plans (Bronze, Silver) or plans from different carriers may be more affordable without enhanced subsidies
• Check Medicaid eligibility. If your income dropped, you may qualify for Medicaid in expansion states at up to 138% FPL
• Consider off-Marketplace private plans. Some private insurance plans sold outside Healthcare.gov may work better for specific situations, though they do not come with tax credits
• Explore short-term plans. OBBBA expanded access to short-term limited-duration insurance. These plans are cheaper but cover less (typically no pre-existing conditions, no essential health benefits). Only appropriate as a short-term bridge
• Talk to a licensed agent. An agent can compare your options across both the Marketplace and off-Marketplace plans and explain which fits your situation. Their service is free to you

The Bottom Line

2026 is a transition year for the ACA Marketplace. Enrollment hit record highs in 2025, but the expiration of enhanced subsidies is already reshaping what Marketplace coverage costs in 2026 — particularly for middle-income enrollees and those just above the 400% FPL line.

Whether Congress revisits subsidy extension in a future bill is an open question. For now, the practical step is to review your 2026 options carefully rather than auto-reenrolling, and compare Marketplace plans against other coverage sources (employer plans, Medicaid, off-Marketplace private options) to find the best fit.